Last week Imperial College London’s IDLES Programme released its latest White Paper: Net-zero GB electricity: cost-optimal generation and storage mix.
Three of its 7 key conclusions were:
But just how deliverable are they? For example, the article acknowledges that DAC is “not a mature technology” so its prominence in the conclusions is a bit of a surprise. Rather than making the case for increased investment, for me this study has demonstrated and indeed reinforces the need to look at the other side of the equation – demand.
This, like many other recent reports, is a supply-led analysis: given increased demand what grid scale supply is required? Demand was modelled based on increases in the number of electric vehicles and heating systems. There is no variation for improved energy efficiency or demand reductions: the requirement is to meet the determined level of demand whatever that is. But, if the consequences of this are too great or challenging, surely we need to examine what steps are needed to flex and reduce the level of demand? For example:
Are these both more achievable and of greater benefit to consumers than building huge corporate energy assets?
So, having demonstrated the scale of the challenge, I strongly suggest the follow-on research requirement should be: what can demand side measures contribute to Net Zero? Such a study should look at 4 key topics:
Much of this comes down to the meaning of the “energy transition”. This should be about rebalancing the system between demand and supply, between the needs of the energy industry and the needs of society, particularly environmental sustainability, and between centralised control and distributed energy. It is not about transitioning to a still centralised but zero-carbon energy system, if that were at all possible, which this study suggests it probably isn’t.
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